India's looking east...

Almost two decades have elapsed after P V Narasima Rao authored India’s Look East Policy (LEP) in 1991. The pertinent question is today do we need any reform in the policy? Well, what is LEP and how it came into being? In light of the forthcoming visits of Vietnamese president Truong Tan Sang and Myanmarese president Thein Sein, Avijit Maity delves into the matter.

Brief History:

India’s look east did not commence with the then honourable Prime Minister PV Narasima Rao and his then Finance Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh in 1991-2. India, in fact, looked towards their eastern neighbours long back. ‘Sadhava” merchants from ancient Kalinga (today’s Orissa) used to sail their “boitas” across “the seven seas and thirteen rivers”. This was during pre-Christian era.  This tradition is still celebrated in Orissa in the form of “Baliyatra” to commemorate the maritime exchanges with “Suvarnadwipas” and “swarnabhumis”.

During 11th and 12th century AD, the “Chola” kings like Raja Raja Chola, Rajendra Chola established maritime relationship with the East Asian countries. These maritime, political, economic and cultural exchanges continued unabated during medieval period when Muslim merchants often traded with the East. With the expansionist policy of the Britishers, the scope and contours of “India-East” relationship received a fillip. The habit of co-habitation got a start during the late 19th century and it was only in 1936 when “Burma” (today’s Myanmar) separated from India through Government of India Act, 1935.

Pandit Nehru, one of the greatest Internationalists and statesmen India ever had, pioneered some magnanimous acts like “Asia-African solidarity”, “Pan-Asian vision” and “Non-Alligned Movement”, inter alia, during the climacteric period of Cold War. His efforts got a major setback in two events – first in 1962 when China attacked India and second when Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Philippines joined South East Asian Treaty Organization (SEATO) – a US-led military organization in 1965. Association of South East Asian Nation (ASEAN) was founded two years later in 1967 and since then ASEAN has become the foremost organization in the Eastern Pacific Ocean.

ASEAN:

It was formed on 8th August 1967 by 5 nation-states Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines and Singapore. With time, 5 more states joined the association and now it has 10 member states. It has an area of 4.46 million km², 600 million people and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of $1.8 trillion. It was formed mainly to augment economic development, regional co-operation and socio-cultural development and is the mainstay of India’s LEP.

Indo-ASEAN relations:

In the initial years, India’s response towards ASEAN was mute. A tectonic change in terms of foreign policy came into vogue in the watershed year of 1991 which experienced end of cold war and concomitant collapse of United States of Soviet Russia (USSR). Narasima Rao and his close confidant Dr. Manmohan Singh, in order to forge a strong and sustainable relationship with East Asian states, initiated LEP. It, has, long been argued by the Indian scholars and diplomats to deepen relationship with East Asian states. This is because of the geo-strategic importance of the region, vacuum created in the aftermath of cold war and China’s increasing engagement with these nations.

India’s progress with ASEAN, a fact file:

1992 - Sectoral dialogue partner
1995 - Full dialogue partner
2002 - Summit partner [ Phnom Penh Summit ]

On the economic front, India has achieved a great success. Bilateral trade has gone up from $2.9 billion in 1993 to $43.90 billion in 2009-10. India exports amounted to $18.11 billion and our imports to $25.79 billion. India and ASEAN set a target of bilateral trade of $70 billion by end of 2012. A Framework Agreement for Comprehensive Economic Cooperation (CECA) was signed in 2005 and Free Trade Agreement (FTA) was signed in 2009 after negotiations of 6 years. India needs to expedite the ongoing processes to establish Free Trade in Services (FTiS) and investment.

In order to intensify people-to-people contacts, a “ASEAN India Media Exchange Programme” was initiated. The passage of Nalanda University Bill, 2010 by our parliament opened the floodgates of multinational interaction and exchanges. Renowned economist, Amartya Sen is the chairman of this project.

In today’s world, defense and terrorism add another dimension to all types of cooperation. India and ASEAN had signed a Joint Declaration on Cooperation to Combat International Terrorism in October 2003 in Bali. India first experienced threats from South Eastern waters when Indonesia threatened to open a battle front in Andaman and Nicobar islands in the Indo-Pakistan war in 1965. Indo-Bangladesh war in 1971 also witnessed US threats in the waters of Bay of Bengal. It is also alleged that China is deploying the “policy of encirclement” or weaving a “string of pearls” “to increase access to foreign ports and airfields, develop special diplomatic relationships, and modernize military forces that extend from the South China Sea through the Strait of Malacca, across the Indian Ocean, and on to the Persian Gulf.”So China’s threatening military presence cemented the idea of bolstering maritime defense cooperation. India holds regular naval exercises with the ASEAN countries in the Indian and pacific waters.

But China is already far ahead from India and India needs to work overtime to reach a competitive level. Our National Security Adviser Shivsankar Menon is of the opinion that China is trying to unify all north-eastern terrorist organizations in Myanmar. India’s recent bonhomie with Bangladesh forced all the terror outfits to find a safe haven in Myanmar and China is allegedly helping them to work against India.

ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) and East Asian Summit (EAS):

ARF was formed in 1993 for mainly three reasons – first: evolving the Confidence Building Measures (CBMs), second: evolution of “preventive diplomacy” and third: for conflict management among the member states (currently it has 27 members). It has three-tiered processes- Track-I (governmental activities), Track I ½ (scholars and officials from member states in their personal capacity) and Track-II (completely nongovernmental forum for academics, scholars, researchers to interact in their private capacity). Since its genesis, it has been useful forum for regional development and multi-faceted cooperation. India became a member of ARF in 1995. India is currently engaged with ARF in many aspects, inter alia, peacekeeping, maritime security, cyber security, piracy, counter-terrorism, nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament.

First EAS was held in Kuala Lumpur on 14th December, 2005. This is the brainchild of Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir bin Mohamad. It is formed for promoting free trade and commerce among the member-countries, energy security, climate change issues, capacity building, disaster management, cultural exchanges, and joint studies among others. India has prioritized EAS forum after its formation and participated each summit.

North East and ASEAN:

North East has always been trouble zone for New Delhi as most north-eastern states undergo insurgencies. Imposition of Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act, 1958 is resented by the people. Irom Sharmila’s hunger strike demanding Indian government to repeal the act since November 2000 is a telling example. Under-development, inability to penetrate the zone, misunderstanding the people, unemployment, governmental actions, inter alia, are primary causes for the resentment. LEP can have a wider impact on integrating north-east to the rest of India. Geographically East Asian states and north eastern states of India are very closely related. In fact, north-east is the bridge on the way to East Asia.

Several projects are already initiated. Mekong-Ganga Cooperation is in operation since November, 2000. India and Myanmar, in April 2008, signed an agreement on $120 million Kaladan multi-modal transit-cum-transport project. This is a highly ambitious project and envisages upgrading Sittwe port of Myanmar; development of a 225-killometer waterway between Sittwe and Setpyitpyin (Kaletwa) in Myanmar along the Kaladan, which flows from Mizoram; construction of a 62km road network from Setpyitpyin to Lawngtlai (a district in southwestern Mizoram), where the road will merge with the National Highway 54. Completion of the project can transform the economics of whole north-east.

LEP reforms?

India definitely needs to reform her LEP. It is, inarguably, a successful policy so far. But there are several areas where India needs to either initiate or prioritize.

1.  First to accelerate in implementing all ongoing projects. This is of paramount importance to expedite the processes involved in carrying out the work.

2.  People of north east need to be directly involved in formulating policy as well as in the implementation. This can bring a feeling of participation among the north-easterners. A political awareness among the people is to be created that LEP is for the people of north-east.

3.  Currently the world is experiencing a “double-dip” recession which is mostly concentrated in the west. East Asia, in this scenario, will be, ever than before, a zone of opportunity for all Indian entrepreneurs. The LEP should focus mainly on this economic prospect.

4.  High-level political visits need to be regularized. The political leaders should be accompanied by a band of economists, businessmen and people of letters.

5.  China has already ahead of India in many aspects. India needs to broad-base all of their baskets viz: economic, political and cultural. We need to have a competitive mindset in this regard.

6.  LEP should be reformed to allow spending more diplomatic effort for the east. Currently, maximum diplomatic efforts are being spent for out western neighbour. This trend has to be changed.

7.   India’s aspiration for global power and concomitant wish of a permanent seat in United Nations Security Council needs to be an essentially important part of LEP. LEP should focus in garnering necessary support of East Asia.

8.   As already mentioned, India has a rich history of engaging herself with East. All channels of history needs to be reopened, needs to be refreshed. Nalanda University project is definitely a great initiative. Some initiatives, like reinvigorating the ancient ports, religious expeditions to East Asia, exchanges of religious leaders, funding in projects which has links with India’s history could be taken into account.

A new enhanced and reformed LEP is the chief mainstay of India’s international aspiration. India is already a regional player in south-east Asia; but to become a superpower, we need to leverage all available opportunities. India has the 2nd largest population, is 2nd in terms of GDP growth, has 3rd largest army, and is 4th economy in Purchase Power Parity (PPP) terms. We have a young demography which most of the advanced economy including China, the fastest growing country in the world, lacks. But an UN-backed and Oxford-led study reveals that India has poor people than that of whole Africa. Eastern India and north-eastern India are mainly the poor states and LEP has the potential to change the economy of these states. That clearly portends that, India’s achievements were not, so far, inclusive. We have a lot of positives; just need to fine-tune the existing policy work in a better way.

A new LEP, will, in many ways, contribute to make India a superpower as well as attaining inclusive and sustainable growth.

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Avijit Maity has bounced back with his take on India's Look-East policy. No wonder, it is high time that India does not only "Look East" but "Engage East". You can share your views with him at indianpolicy2010@gmail.com