Friday, November 26, 2010

Indo-Myanmar Relations and the ASSK factor



Myanmar and India share close cultural and historical ties. The zeal of colonial expansion provoked British administration to wage wars one after the other since 1826 and after the third Anglo-Burmese war in 1886, Burma was annexed completely and made one of the Indian territories. Both Burma and India obtained their independence almost at the same time but unexpectedly bilateral relations between these two neighbours have not been satisfying. The rationale behind this is the presence of military dictatorship in Myanmar since 1962 and India being an ardent follower of democracy. There have been many allegations against the Junta for the violation of Human Rights and it seems there is hardly any light at the end of this dark tunnel.

But for past few years there has been a change in the attitude of Indian policy makers. Finally they have started viewing the Indo-Myanmar relations through the prism of Realpolitik and not through their artificial dogma (hyper democratic). Right now India considers Myanmar as the most important factor to reap the benefits of its decade old “Look East policy”. There are many potent factors behind this eye opener like the geostrategic location of Myanmar in Asia and the bountiful mineral and natural gas resources. But the foremost reason behind this 'policy shift' is the strong strategic foothold gained by China in Myanmar.

When the whole world was against Myanmar’s Junta, they found a close ally in China .The Communist government in China is least bother about the type of government ruling in Myanmar and instead it is in the best interests of CPC (Communist Party of China) that Myanmar should stay miles away from democracy. China has a lot to gain from Myanmar even if it needs to spend billions (both aid and investment). 



China is seeking access to Bay of Bengal (Indian Ocean) to shorten the trade route of its oil imports from Central Asia and Eurasia and Myanmar can play a vital role to achieve this as it has coastline in Bay of Bengal. Chinese access to Indian Ocean can raise alarm bells in the South Block because it would provide China the shortest route to reach the Indian mainland. We can imagine the growing Chinese bonhomie towards Myanmar by the fact that the latter has recently allowed China to set up a naval base in the Coco Islands which are situated in the north of Andaman and Nicobar.

But recently there have been two incidents which would probably decide the future of Indo- Burmese relationship. First, the historic visit of General Than Shwe to India few days back and secondly the release of Myanmar’s pro-democracy messiah Aung San Suu Kyi (ASSK). Though with respect to India these events were almost contrasting but the significance lying behind them is extremely important to frame the Indian foreign policy towards Myanmar.

Looking at the policy followed by India towards its eastern neighbor for past few years, the General’s visit was extremely important in order to stop China from eating the whole pie. India has been involved in many infrastructural projects in Myanmar and Indian private sector is also slowly spreading its branches there. Successful completion of Kaladan Multimodal project is indispensable to counter the chicken neck path in North Bengal to reach the north eastern states when a lucrative alternative path is available through Myanmar. 



Moreover, the terrorist organizations who are spreading the anti India feelings in the north eastern states have found safe sanctuaries in the Myanmarese soil. India urgently needs the support of the Junta to wipe out their terror camps.

Now there is a twist in this tale. Few days back finally after a long wait ASSK was released from house arrest by the Junta. India, in the pre 1995 days (before the adoption of “Look East Policy”), had whole heartedly supported Myanmar‘s pro-democratic movement led by ASSK. Even the noble laureate was awarded with Nehru Prize for International Understanding in 1995. But since then the situation has changed drastically at least from the Indian perspective. Though the whole country celebrated the release of one of the most outstanding leader of modern world, Indian Parliament remained silent over this issue.

Well we can say that the coming days will be a real testing time for our policy makers. If we remember, Obama in his Parliament speech just after declaring American support for Indian permanent membership in UNSC had mentioned Myanmar. No doubt US has always backed the pro-democratic movement in Myanmar and favoured hard steps against the Junta in UNSC. 



However, the Indian policy makers know the fact very well that Myanmar is the way to South East Asia and looking at the recent trend, they surely would not like to strain this nascent relation. India would like to search a political solution to this dilemma but looking at the recently concluded rigged elections in Myanmar,possibility of a political solution looks very fragile. ASSK’s party NLD (National League for Democracy) didn’t take part in this fake election.

India being a temporary member of UNSC for the coming two years need to play
a vital role here and definitely should not act as a puppet of US while taking sides. Rationality and realism should predominate in this process and not the artificial dogma. Well personally I believe probably the best solution which India should seek is the collaboration of ruling Junta and ASSK in Myanmar. Remember ASSK in the speech after her release did not say anything against the Junta and requested people to concentrate on nation building. India also wants the same thing, a peaceful and pro-India government in Myanmar. Only time will tell in which direction the wheel would move.


------------------------------------------
Deepak Pal works his way in the booming software industry in Kolkata. At the same time, he desires to contribute toward his nation.

Random Walk: Elephants and Popcorn

Dear All, 

Tonight, before you go to bed, I assure you that your sound sleep shall not be perturbed as I will tell you three stories. Yes, those three stories where a number of elephants are involved. And as in any story, there is ought to be an introduction, I shall stick to the norm here too. At the end of my tale, be alert to decipher the moral.

So, here goes the prologue. 

Sometimes in the second half of the seventeenth century, the Mughal Empire in India was gradually reaching its zenith under the aegis of Emperor Aurangzib. There was one noble of his, named Qabil Khan. He had a very short stint in the nobility. Even then, he could amass twelve lakhs (over one million Indian rupees) in cash during that period of office. However, he was not the only one. Lavishness exhibited by the nobles was an accepted norm in Mughal India. Historians tell us that everyday, a hundred dishes were prepared for Abul Fazl, Emperor Akbar’s court historian. In fact, in those days no official work could proceed without giving presents to the nobles. Thus corruption, jobbery and misuse of office were present, if not rampant in Medieval India.



The exploitation by the nobility was so heart-rending that the French traveler, Bernier tells us that on account of the demands of the rapacious lords, the Indian peasants were driven to despair at “so execrable a tyranny”.



Nonetheless, there seems to be a greener side to it because the nobles and the gentry, who usurped the finances, also put it into public use as they built mosques, hospices, inns, market places, canals, tanks, orchards and the like. In some way or the other, money looted in the country remained within its territorial confines.



Just a century down the lane, malfeasance in India acquired a different connotation altogether. The ‘servants’ of the English East India Company indulged in a ‘never-known-before’ type of acts of delinquency. Over and above their loot, rapine and plunder, they engineered an environment of corruption which could penetrate socio-cultural barriers.



However, scholarly euphemisms like ‘Drain of Wealth’ tended to shield such brazen acts, first by the Company and thereafter in a process of continuity by the bureaucracy of the Imperial Raj.



Corruption in post-colonial India must not and should not be ascribed to a legacy of the British Raj since that would be a highly simplistic solution. The root problem is ingrained within a complex matrix of socio-economic and cultural development of a nation-state; influenced by both internal psychological morphology and external dependencies on money-economy.



About three years back when I was returning to India from Seoul in a Singapore Airlines flight, I had an Englishman sitting beside me. By profession, he was a journalist and was visiting India as a traveler. Slowly, after the initial pleasantries, we got involved in some serious discussion. I threw at him a rather awkward question since I was curious to know what an outsider, especially a person whose Crown had ruled us for about a century, thought about us.



I sought his opinion on the reason behind the prevalence of corruption in India. After all, India, inter alia, has the distinction to be the top bribe payer in securing business deals. His reply, which hopefully was not dishonest, was that Indians were corrupt because they were ‘poor’. In fact, for that matter, people in the sub-continent were corrupt due to the same reason.



Well, three years have passed and India has moved on. It has, according to the words of the American President Barack Obama, ‘emerged’ and ‘not merely emerging’. India has galloped toward the moon. India has had an economy which grew at a robust rate of eight to nine per cent per annum. India could stealthily isolate itself from the evils of the global meltdown. India could boast of multibillionaires like the Ambanis and the Mittals. India generated a beefy volume of films which garnered not only popular appreciation at home and abroad, but at the same time could bag awards of the highest order. India also pumped outwards a healthy amount of software exports, the very body of which was churned out by an equally ‘expert’ body of ‘graduated’ staff. And finally, India did host the Commonwealth Games, as a ‘last-moment-salvaged’ possible brandishing of economic exuberance vis-a-vis China.



And, one more thing India did in the last three years. The government implemented a pay rise for its public servants and academia; a hike (of about 75 per cent) which places the ‘servants’ as a more-or-less privileged class compared to a parallel set of ‘masses’, who according to official statistics, comprise 30 per cent of the total population and visually portray a horde of dark-skinned, snub-nosed subjugated denizens with distended bellies which is symptomatic of an Ethiopia-esque landscape.



As if India’s legislators were privy to the conversation that I had with the Englishman in the Singapore Airlines flight in 2007, that they enhanced their own ‘salaries’ to the next higher level (an effective increase of about 100 per cent), wailing that even such an increment was not commensurate with their ‘constitutional status’.



Hence in 2010, at least the world and the ‘hapless’ Indians who have been implicitly codified as the ‘other’ in the lexicon of the ‘sane authorities’, expected a country free of corruption of the level of the Medieval hooligans or the colonial ruffians.



However, it was not to be and if the journalist Englishman is still around, he might have to re-hypothesize his conjecture regarding The Great Indian Corruption. A very recent example of an administrative officer in the Union Home Ministry selling himself off in return of monetary and sexual favours is a standard case in point.



Place: New Delhi, capital of the Indian Union. It was the venue of the Commonwealth Games. A last moment Indian magic could somehow resurrect the falling credibility and an A R Rehman song was a soothing conclusion to the pejorative event.



A peep into Wikipedia would ensure that the initial total budget estimated by the Indian Olympic Association in 2003 for hosting the Games was US $364.5 million but the escalated official total budget estimation in 2010 became US $2.6 billion, which excludes non-sports-related infrastructure development in the city. The Business Today magazine has estimated that the net cost for the games has turned out to be US $6.8 billion.



With such an astronomical budget on the carpet, it was not unexpected to have allegations of mismanagement and hence concomitant corruption against the involved officials. Most recent news quotes the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) that it has collected concrete documentary evidence against the organising committee Chairman Suresh Kalmadi which establishes his role in the Queen's Baton relay controversy. Reports indicate that the CBI is planning the arrest of Mr Kalmadi on his return to India from the Asian Games in Guangzhou, China.



The Indian Constitution is the bulkiest of its kind in the world and Article 148 of the venerated, but not infallible document upholds the office of the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) whose job of exploring any surreptitious squandering away of public exchequer is explicitly delineated in the next article of the same treatise.



Hence, the CAG did not trespass its jurisdiction when it raised a hue and cry against the loss to the tune of Rs.176,000 crore (about US $40 bn) to the public treasury. The fingers were being directly pointed toward A. Raja, then Union Telecom Minister. He reportedly gave away licenses at unusually low prices to some select companies for the 2G (second generation) electromagnetic spectrum wireless telephone technology. Instead of following the well-established auction route, the Minister took the First Come First Served (FCFS) process while disbursing the licenses. Interestingly, while indulging in that, Mr. Raja appears to have flouted norms, suggestions and directives of the Prime Minister, the Ministries of Law and Finance, and the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India.



Well, Raja has resigned, just to shut some vociferous clamouring no doubt. However, it seems pretty hard to digest the fact that the Minister was peregrinating in such a turf since 2008 without the cognizance of his ‘bosses’, and the Prime Minister by virtue of the Cabinet system that works in India, is at the apex. A former Cabinet Secretary of India told Rediff.com that under the Transaction of Business Rules (1961) any decision above Rs 500 crore (US$110 million) has to go through the Union Cabinet.



P C Alexander, a former Governor of two of India’s provinces, in an article expressed shock when he said: “how could in a parliamentary democracy like ours, a minister ignore the advice of the Prime Minister in such a matter?”



Place: Mumbai, formerly Bombay and India’s financial capital. The city houses the country’s most prolific sportsperson, rather the ‘Godly’ cricketer, Sachin Tendulkar. However, a scam has recently been unearthed in this city which would quite easily surpass all of Tendulkar’s runs and with élan can force people to be more appalled at its magnitude than be horrified to watch the city taken at ransom by a few Pakistan-based terrorists as on 26/11.



The “Adarsh” Cooperative Housing Society, originally meant to be a six-storey structure to house Kargil war heroes and war widows, was converted into a 100-metre-tall building. [Kargil war was a brief skirmish between India and Pakistan in 1999].



The society was built subject to the condition that it would accommodate only war veterans and their widows, but now has 103 members, which include relatives of then Chief Minister of Maharashtra (Mumbai being its capital), Mr Ashok Chavan.



On top of that, former Army Chiefs Generals Deepak Kapoor and N C Vij and former Navy chief Admiral Madhavendra Singh and Vice-Chief Gen Shantanu Choudhary also got flats in the society. Interestingly, they have offered to surrender their flats on the grounds that they did not know (?) the land was meant for the widows of Kargil war heroes. The list also includes the names of former Union Environment minister Suresh Prabhu and a host of bureaucrats and their relatives. An individual by the name of S B Chavan also owns a flat. Amusingly, Ashok Chavan’s late father was also S B Chavan!



According to the present market rate in the South Mumbai area where the society is located, an average-sized flat could cost somewhere between Rs 6 crore and Rs 8 crore (US $1.3 to $1.7 million). However, members of the society paid a meager one-tenth of the said price for each flat.



Now, what has been the outcome of such a leak? Simple. Another resignation and this time of the Chief Minister Ashok Chavan.



So, arrests and resignations have taken place and the CBI is on the move. The moot question though pertains to the alacrity of the investigating agency.



Coming back to my English friend’s hypothesis, one thing turns out to be common in these three stories. None of the protagonists were ‘poor’. Rather they were well entrenched in the Indian society. So, what made them ‘corrupt’? Was it simply greed?



This is a simple question which has a difficult answer.



Anthropologists, Historians, Sociologists, Psychologists, Political Scientists; may be even Biologists and Physicians have to get their acts together in a collaborative joint venture to unearth the psyche of the Indian Elephants who tend to eat more and more and more and more…………..to mutate into massive colossus beasts.



2010 would soon give way to 2011. India’s policy-makers would boast of high growth projections and Indian Space Research Organisation shall attempt to compete with China in Space architecture and Sachin Tendulkar, by all estimates would go on scoring more runs. The ‘Aam Aadmi’ (common man) of India would be enthralled and bemused with these and also watch more movies while munching popcorn.




The Elephants, however, shall go on eating, unabated, undaunted and unhindered.

So, what is the moral? Just go to bed. 

--------------------------------
Uddipan Mukherjee is a late riser. Still, he works 'very hard' to edit Indian Policy. By the way, he writes in diplostratics 

Monday, November 22, 2010

Journalists or Da,,,s?


Note: "DO NOT believe anyone in INDIA. Whatever you listen in the TV, read in the newspaper, DO NOT believe those."  My friend had told me this very thing few years ago. 


I did NOT believe him then. Now, it shall be difficult for me to face him.
==============================

Interested?, please read on................. 





VIR SANGHVI IN CONVERSATION WITH NIIRA RADIA

On 15 June 2009, the Bombay High Court directed Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) to honour an agreement signed with Anil Ambani's Reliance Natural Resources Ltd (RNRL) as part of a family asset division that assured the latter supply of gas from the KG basin at a discount price of $2.34 per unit, a private deal that the Supreme Court later ruled was invalid since the gas was State-owned even though RIL was the gas field's operator. Here, Niira Radia discusses the implications of the High Court judgment with prominent journalist Vir Sanghvi

DATE 20 June 2009 TIME 12:09:59

RADIA: Hi

VIR: Okay, now I can talk.

RADIA: I just got out of this treadmill. On this battle. I need to, I'm trying to get Mukesh to come out and talk.

VIR: Yeah.

RADIA: But the thing is this, we have to, if he talks, we have to carry it as is, in the sense that you know he, I think, they're very conscious of every line and everything that goes out.

VIR: Yeah.

RADIA: Because it's a battle. It's a battle at the end of the day for him, you know. And also, whether we bring it into print.

VIR: Right.

RADIA: That's the other issue. I think the ¦

VIR: But see Anil can't afford to give interviews because he will be asked about Amar Singh, so many things, so that the advantage Mukesh has is that he can talk and there is nothing for him to be embarrassed about. So many skeletons in Anil's closet that he doesn't want to clarify. If he comes on, he says, 'Amar Singh is my close friend,' he is fucked. If he comes on, he says, 'I have no relations with Amar Singh,' Amar Singh will kill him. I mean there are so many awkward things, so Anil has decided to avoid the media. Mukesh doesn't have that problem. Mukesh can talk straight, can say things. You can rehearse. You can work out a script in advance. You can go exactly according to the script. Anil can't do any of those things, no?

RADIA: Right. But we can do that, no?

VIR: Yeah.

RADIA:Yeah?

VIR: But Mukesh has to be on board. He has to sort of realise. It has to be fully scripted.

RADIA: No, that's what I mean. I think that's what he's asking me.

VIR: Yes, it has to be fully scripted.

RADIA: He is saying is that, 'Look Niira', that 'I don't want anything extempore.'

VIR: No, it has to be fully scripted. I have to come in and do a run through with him before.

RADIA: Yeah, yeah.

VIR: We have to rehearse it before the cameras come in.

RADIA: Yeah, yeah.

VIR: Then it is worth doing.

RADIA: Correct, correct.

VIR: Otherwise, there is a lot at stake.

RADIA: Yeah. That's right, that's the one point. The other thing was that when Rohit on this particular article of [inaudible] because Anil is going all out and we are going to start talking. It is not as if we are not going to start talking. But I think the challenge that I'm facing is that I think we need to set the tone.

VIR: Okay.

RADIA: How what has happened as far as the order is concerned is completely against national interest.

VIR: Okay.

RADIA: You know and even if we were to assume that they get gas or they get coal, or they get iron ore or whatever one gets. If you look at how Tatas has always gone into those areas and done something for the people even before they have been able to extract anything out of it.

VIR: Right.

RADIA: Here, the culture of, you know, if it's set at a power plant in Shahpur, which Rohit will brief you, or is setting up a power plant in Dadri ¦ One would ask a question, have you actually done anything for those people even though you are taking their land from them? I can say today you know with my hand on my heart whether it is Kalinga Nagar that we are fighting the Maoists or Singur where we fought Mamta, we continue doing work whether our plant came up or not. You know sometimes ¦

VIR: What kind of story do you want? Because this will go as Counterpoint, so it will be like most-most read, but it can't seem too slanted, yet it is an ideal opportunity to get all the points across.

RADIA: But basically, the point is what has happened as far as the High Court is concerned is a very painful thing for the country because what is done is against national interest.

VIR: Okay.

RADIA: I think that's the underlying message.

VIR: Okay. That message we will do. That allocation of resources which are scarce national resources of a poor country cannot be done in this arbitrary fashion to benefit a few rich people.

RADIA: That's right.

VIR: Yeah. That message we will get across, but what other points do we need to make?

RADIA: I think we need to say that you know it's a lesson for the corporate world that, you know, they need to think through whenever they want to look at this, whether they really seriously do give back to society.

VIR: So I will link it to the election verdict. The fact that there has been so much Narega, that Sonia has committed to including everybody, that it should be inclusive growth. It shouldn't just benefit the few fat cats. It shouldn't be cronyism. It shouldn't be arbitrary. That's how the message for this five years of Manmohan Singh should be ”that you have to put an end to this kind of allocations of scarce resources on the basis of corruption and arbitrariness at the cost of the country, otherwise the country will not forgive you.

RADIA: Yeah, but Vir, you have to keep in mind that he has been given the gas field by the Government to operate. He spent ten billion dollars on it.

VIR: Okay.

RADIA: Anil Ambani is getting the benefit without spending a cent on it ¦

VIR: I'll make those points, no?

RADIA: Yeah.

VIR: So I'll make those points. The people, because the system is so corrupt and open to manipulation, by manipulating the system, by not paying anybody you can get hands on resources. Therefore the only way Manmohan Singh hopes to survive is to get a handle on the resources and have some kind of way of allocating them that is transparent, fair and perhaps done by him.

RADIA: But there you will be attacking Mukesh only, no.

VIR: Why, why, why, explain that.

RADIA: You see, because a resource has been allocated to Mukesh in this case.

VIR: So, what point do you want me to make?

RADIA: The point I'm making is that here, the point is limited to the fact that you cannot have a High Court deciding on this. You cannot have a tribunal deciding on this.

VIR: What about ministers?

RADIA: Even ministers.

VIR: Spectrum and co is ministers, no?

RADIA: Yeah, even ministers. You want to really look at, maybe there's an EGoM [Empowered Group of Ministers] that got set and is looking at the pricing issue, and natural resources should be decided not by any of this arbitrary mechanism. It has to be one for the country. And there should be some sort of a formula that Manmohan Singh has to...

VIR: Yeah, that is the message, you know. There should be a formula by which resources will be allocated in a transparent, non-arbitrary sort of way. That has to be a message, no?

RADIA: Yeah. And also, you know, going to court.

VIR: That the people want resources, they have to be back to society. They have to pay the Government. They have corporate social responsibility. They have to care about the people who are going to be displaced, the people who are going to lose things. You can't just go ahead and rape the system.

RADIA: Yeah. But you want to say that you know, more importantly that here a family MoU has taken precedence over national interest, and what the judge has done ¦ I mean you'll have to attack the judge here because the judge has, what he's done, he's given preference to an MoU. He has held on to the MoU and said, 'Okay, this had to be implemented.' But he has forgotten what's good, that's why it raises a bigger constitutional issue.

VIR: Which is?

RADIA: Which is natural resources is really a constitutional issue. It has to do with the country and the nation.

VIR: It's not between two brothers and their fight.

RADIA: It's not and therefore the judge's interpretation of an MoU ¦

VIR: Yeah.

RADIA: It cannot be the basis of the way how we can proceed on these sorts of issues. I mean, you have to attack the fact that the judge has only gone into the MoU. His entire judgment is on the basis of the MoU.

VIR: Yeah.

RADIA: And therefore a judgment between two family members cannot be how you decide the future.

VIR: Okay. Let this Rohit come, let me explain to him, and I'll talk to you and tell you what line I'm taking.

RADIA: Okay. And you'll do it for next Sunday, is it?

VIR: No, no tomorrow

+++

And now, a conversation on an entirely different issue. In May 2009, as coalition talks between the DMK and Congress broke down, Niira Radia was apparently involved quite actively in opening channels between the two parties through, among others, Vir Sanghvi

VIR SANGHVI "I won't get into Sonia in the short term, let me try and get through to Ahmed"

DATE 22 May 2009 TIME 13:03:19

VIR: Hi Niira.

RADIA: Hi Vir. Where are you, Delhi or ¦

VIR: I'm in Jaipur. Coming back this evening.

RADIA: Okay. I just wanted to ¦ I've been talking to my Tamil Nadu friends.

VIR: Okay.

RADIA: I just need to ¦ I don't know whether you are in the position to get through to anyone at Congress. I just met Kani just now.

VIR: Okay.

RADIA: And I've been, you know, we re-united since yesterday. The problem is ¦

VIR: I was supposed to meet Sonia today, but I've been stuck here. So, now it's becoming tomorrow. I've been meeting with Rahul, but tell me?

RADIA: No, I'll tell you what---they are not understanding that they are actually communicating with the wrong guy. Not because I detached Maran, but actually the father has not nominated Maran to negotiate. Now, you know, it's like a banana republic where the Cabinet ¦

VIR: Then why Maran became the face? They all hate Maran.

RADIA: No. He is not, he is not. I know, no. But the Congress is under the impression. They have already apparently indicated to Maran that the Prime Minister will not give infrastructure berth to DMK, which ¦ but he himself is desperately pushing for an infrastructure berth for himself.

VIR: Right.

RADIA: But the problem is that there is a leader which is Kani's brother, which is Alagiri, who's won that election and he is a mass leader.

VIR: Okay.

RADIA: Now what has apparently ¦ Maran has gone and indicated to Congress that he will accept a MOS independent, and you leave it with me, everything will be okay.

VIR: Okay.

RADIA: Which blames Baalu, Raja and Maran Cabinet posts independent to Alagiri and MOS to Kani.

VIR: Okay.

RADIA: Now, Alagiri is a very, you know, he is, he is a mass leader. He controls half of Tamil Nadu for Karunanidhi's point of view.

VIR: Okay.

RADIA: He is far too, too senior for Maran. So, what he has told his father that if you make Maran a Cabinet minister ¦

VIR: Yeah.

RADIA: ¦I'll not come into the Cabinet. And the father cannot afford to upset him because ¦

VIR: Obviously.

RADIA: ¦simply because of his position.

VIR: Yeah.

RADIA: Right now, the Congress doesn't seem to be understanding this.

VIR: So, who should they talk to?

RADIA: They need to, look, they need to talk directly to Karunanidhi, they need to talk to Kani.

VIR: Sonia spoke to him yesterday, you know.

RADIA: No, she didn't speak to him. Only Prime Minister spoke, even that was Kani was translating for him. It was very brief that, you know, let's try and resolve this issue. There is nothing at all and whatever. They need to get Ghulam Nabi Azad to speak to Kanimozhi.

VIR: Okay.

RADIA: Seriously, that's the only thing that will work and Kani will take them to her father.

VIR: I won't get into Sonia in the short term, let me try and get through to Ahmed.

RADIA: No. But they need to speak to Kani [Kanimozhi, DMK Chief M Karunanidhi's daughter], and Kani will take him to their, her father directly.

VIR: Okay.

RADIA: He has no problem with three Cabinet berths at all. In fact, it is the Congress that messed it up.

VIR: Mm...hmm.

RADIA: Had they, had they not kept on insisting and kept on pushing Maran forward ¦ themselves have been pushing Maran forward. They would have left it to Raja and, and Baalu even if they wanted, or Raja and Alagiri and Kani would taken independent, nobody will, it is Congress they started this whole Maran dialogue.

VIR: Oh, I have been thinking that DMK nominated Maran.

RADIA: No. No. No. No, they did, they've sent a list earlier with five portfolios and Maran's name because father was pushed ¦ so he had to send a list with everybody's name on it. But he was hoping that Congress would come back and say, 'Okay, we will accept Raja,' or 'We will not,' or 'Not Raja, we will give you only three portfolios,' right? But they have not able to, the communication that's been happening in Congress with DMK has been completely warped. They are talking to the wrong guys.

VIR: Okay. Let me try and get through to Ahmed.

RADIA: The, the simplest way is Kani [inaudible; 0:03:24].

VIR: Yeah.

RADIA: And Kani [inaudible; 0:03:27] will take them to her father directly.

VIR: Okay.

RADIA: And they can have this, you know, whatever are the, the concerns, whatever they want to say, let them say in front of Kani.

VIR: And he'll never mind. He will not mind.

RADIA: Yeah, they should say, they should say, 'We don't want Maran.'

VIR: Okay, done. Let me just try and get through and I'll let you know soon.

RADIA: But the moment you drop Maran, your problem gets resolved because Alagiri has done okay.

VIR: Okay.

RADIA: Okay. Give him this message. She is right now ¦

VIR: I just ¦

RADIA: [Inaudible; 0:03:51] She is in her South Avenue residence.

VIR: They have a mobile , you know?

RADIA: I just met her.

VIR: Okay.

RADIA: And some Tamil Nadu Congress guys also want just now to meet her.

VIR: Okay.

RADIA: I don't think it needs to be done at that level. It needs to be done at, at Ghulam Nabi Azad level or ¦

VIR: Well, I'll talk with Ahmed. I'm going to talk to him.

+++

A follow-up discussion on cabinet berths for the DMK's leading lights, including of course the Telecom Ministry for A Raja

NIIRA RADIA "Thanks ¦That was really great, you know, you all, I mean it was exactly as you had said"

DATE 23 May 2009 TIME 22:26:42

VIR: Hello.

RADIA: Sorry to disturb you.

VIR: Hi, no problem.

RADIA: They had a meeting.

VIR: Okay.

RADIA: MK Narayanan [National Security Advisor at the time] had come.

VIR: Okay.

RADIA: And as suggested it was Kani only.

VIR: Okay.

RADIA: And they had a ¦ they are still stuck to their four formula and one independent.

VIR: Okay.

RADIA: But these people will also think about it and let him know tomorrow morning. He is ¦

VIR: But they will not send him about the family or whatever, right?

RADIA: No. He clarified everything that you had told him.

VIR: Okay, very good.

RADIA: I think that there was no issue, and there was, and there was lot of relief from this Chief Minister's side.

VIR: Okay.

RADIA: And he realised that, you know, this is all being done by ¦

VIR: By Maran.

RADIA: ¦yeah. [inaudible; 0:00:42] But the thing is that it appears that he is still under a lot of pressure to take Maran, you know, so ¦

VIR: Where is this coming from, this pressure?

RADIA: It's coming from Stalin and his sister Sylvie.

VIR: Okay.

Radia: So, I believe Maran has given about 600 crores to Dayalu, Stalin's mother.

VIR: 600 Crores, okay?

RADIA: 600 Crores, is what I'm told.

VIR It's hard to argue with that kind of pressure?

RADIA: Isn't it. So, he is ¦

VIR: Yeah.

RADIA: ¦but no, but he doesn't know, the father doesn't, I mean...

VIR: Doesn't realise what?

RADIA: Doesn't realise that. But this is the feedback that Alagiri has got.

VIR: Okay.

RADIA: And ¦

VIR: So, basically what they want is a little more flexibility and posts right? They want probably more cabinets or something?

RADIA: They are saying one more cabinet and Kani was independent charge.

VIR: Yeah.

RADIA: But if they stick to three and give independent charge, then Kani gets her independent and then Alagiri, Baalu and Raja come in?

VIR: That is not so bad, you know.

RADIA: Yeah, so I think ¦

VIR: ¦unless Maran is one of the cabinet.

RADIA: Yeah. But yeah, unless Maran is one of the cabinet. But I don't think he can give it to three family members.

VIR: Yeah.

RADIA: That will send a very wrong signal.

VIR: That's right.

RADIA: So, the best thing is, you know, if I don't know whether Narayanan can say that, I mean he can't say who should be the people. But he could probably go back and say that, you know, Baalu and Raja and Alagiri is the best option and Kani, you know.

VIR: And it's good for the Government also. That doesn't seem to be giving it to the family.

RADIA: Yeah. Yeah but then I don't know whether he is in the position to take names, you know.

VIR: Because Baalu and Raja are saying it is being spread by Maran saying that we don't, nobody wants them because they are crooks to advance his own career, you know.

RADIA: Yeah. Yeah. So, if there was anything that could be said which is, that, that you know, you know, if, if Narayanan was to come back tomorrow and say by looking, I think, we think that may be the three, and we'll see a little later for the fourth one. But for now let's just look at Alagiri, Baalu and Raja ¦

VIR: And, and, and see Maran ¦

RADIA: ¦and we can give independent to Kani.

VIR : Yeah. Makes sense.

RADIA: And, and that would be a, a good thing for him to say. And they are asking for environment and forest.

VIR: See, Narayanan will talk to PM. Then they have to communicate, he won't talk to the Congress President.
Radia: Hmm?

VIR: He won't talk to Congress president. So, somebody ¦ he's PM's man, he has gone on behalf of PM. So, they will, PMO will send its feedback to Congress party. So, that stage my friends will get a ¦.

RADIA: So they will in any case speak to Ahmed, you know.

VIR: Yeah. Yeah, they will. And nothing will happen without his getting involved.

RADIA: Yeah.

VIR: So, I'll speak to him right away and convey this?

RADIA: Yeah. But maybe that, you know, he would have to specify then that we are not too comfortable with Maran ¦

VIR: Yeah.

RADIA: ¦and let it be Baalu and Raja because so much has been said and then it would also, also send a wrong message that if you don't take Baalu and Raja now. But I don't know whether they will say that?

VIR: I don't know. Well let's, let's. No, harm trying.

RADIA: But therefore Kani, is asking for, he is not told Narayanan this, but they've suggested a couple of ministries.

VIR: Which one?

RADIA: But they are saying okay, telecom is going to Raja in any case.

VIR: Okay.

RADIA: That, the old man is very clear about.

VIR: Okay.

RADIA: But as far as the other two are concerned, he doesn't mind. He is not very fussed about chemical, fertilisers and labour.

VIR: Okay.

RADIA: How funny, he would prefer that she gets independent charge Environment and Forest or something like that. You know, where she can get her teeth in and she is I think, she is very upright with it. So, they shouldn't have any problem with that, or by the way aviation also.

VIR: What about Civil Aviation?

RADIA: And Civil Aviation.

VIR: It gives her the, it gives her the profile she would need, you know.

RADIA: She wants the aviation because, why she says aviation because she can do Chennai airport, Salem and Madurai and all that, you know ¦

VIR: Yeah.

RADIA: ¦it gives her the, the foothold for the political side.

VIR: We don't have anyone there. Let me talk.

RADIA: Yeah. And she is intelligent and she will do just, because they are saying Environment and Forest and Aviation for Kani in independent charge.

VIR: I'll pass this on?

RADIA: Yeah. Thanks. Thanks to you.

VIR: Yeah.

RADIA: That was really great, you know, you all, I mean it was exactly as you had said and ¦

VIR : Okay.

RADIA: They were very relieved and she was so relieved. So, wants to say thank you to you personally.

VIR: I'll pass it ¦

RADIA: Let's hope tomorrow it will---and Alagiri has got all those messages. My person came back and confirmed.

VIR: Oh, very good.

BARKHA DUTT IN CONVERSATION WITH NIIRA RADIA

As talks between the DMK and Congress ('them') broke down over joining the Government in May 2009, Radia was actively involved in opening channels between the two parties through, among others, television journalist Barkha Dutt

"Oh God. So now what? What should I tell them? Tell me what should I tell them?" ”BARKHA DUTT
DATE 22 May 2009 TIME 09:48:51

RADIA: Hi, did I wake you up?

BARKHA: No, no, no. I've been up, ya, most of the night. The stalemate continues, yaa.

RADIA: Yeah. Listen, the thing is that they need to talk to him directly. That is what the problem is.

BARKHA: Haan so, apparently PM's really pissed off that they went public.

RADIA: But that's Baalu's doing, naa ¦ he was not instructed by Karunanidhi to do that.

BARKHA: Oh, he wasn't?

RADIA: This is not. He was told to come away and tell Congress that.

BARKHA: And he went public

RADIA: Well, the media ¦ media, the media was standing outside.

BARKHA: Oh God. So now what? What should I tell them? Tell me what should I tell them?

RADIA: I'll tell you what it is ”the problem and I have had a long chat with both his wife and with the daughter right

¦

BARKHA: Haan, haan.

RADIA: The problem is if the Congress has a problem with Baalu, if they have no problem with anyone. They need and go talk to Karunanidhi. They have very good relationship with Karunanidhi directly.

BARKHA: Correct, haan.

RADIA: Because you see, in front of Baalu, in front of Maran, they can't talk.

BARKHA: Yeah

RADIA: So they have to tell him directly, there [are] enough Congress leaders in Tamil Nadu. They need to go in and tell him exactly ”the biggest problem is that the following of Alagiri is saying that you cannot give [inaudible] a cabinet [inaudible] and keep Alagiri in the MoS state.

BARKHA: That's right. But will Karuna drop Baalu?

RADIA: He ¦ look, if you tell him that Baalu is the only problem. I would imagine, he will drop him.

BARKHA: But you see the problem right now is also over the choice of portfolios, naa ¦

RADIA: No. They've not said anything. The portfolios have not even got discussed.

BARKHA: Congress claims, for whatever it's worth, that the DMK wanted surface transport, power, IT, telecom, railways and health.

¦

RADIA: You see, you see my honest advice ¦

BARKHA: Yeah.

RADIA: ..is that you tell them that they need to tell him directly that we are happy because Kani's [Kanimozhi, DMK Chief Karunanidhi's daughter] got no issue being about independent. But Alagiri is now telling her that you cannot take an independent charge if Maran remains cabinet minister.

BARKHA: I see.

RADIA: And Congress is sending messages through media and through various sources, saying that. And Maran is telling everyone that he is the only acceptable person.

BARKHA: Person, yeah, yeah, yeah. That I know.

RADIA: But that's not correct, naa?

BARKHA: No, I know. We've taken that off. We've taken that off.

¦

BARKHA: Also, but, but the Congress needs to tell Karunanidhi that we have not said anything about Maran.

BARKHA: Okay. Let me talk to them again.

RADIA: Yeah? The choice of candidate we will leave to you. We have some reservation about Baalu. And let them tell the reservation. And we have not said anything about Maran. We are not talking

+++

In another telecon, Barkha Dutt offers Niira Radia the assurance that she is on the job as a reliable go-between

DATE 22 May 2009 TIME 10:47:33

BARKHA: Haan, Niira?

RADIA: Barkha, what I'm told is that the Congress yesterday, apparently, God knows who they are talking to in the DMK.

BARKHA: Haan, well must be Maran ¦

RADIA: Relayed ”no, they relayed that the infrastructure portfolio should not be given to Maran or Baalu.

BARKHA: No, that's because they want to keep it for themselves.

RADIA: No, they wanted to; they didn't want any infrastructure, that's what Prime Minister said, so he said that's why they give him labour, fertiliser, chemical ”and telecom, IT, they said for Raja. So what has happened is, is that message not relayed to Karunanidhi?

BARKHA: Oh I see!

RADIA: They might have told some minion down the line or told Maran who is not relaying the truth.

BARKHA: I think they have told Maran.

RADIA: Yeah, now what they need to do is, they need to speak to Kani so she can set up the discussion with her father, because even the Prime Minister's discussion was ¦ she was the one who's translating, and it was a very brief discussion for two minutes.

BARKHA: Okay.

RADIA: That we'll try and work it out, and the let's not you know take it a hasty easy decision. That's the type of conversation that happened.

BARKHA: No, I'll set it up as soon as they get out of RCR.

RADIA: What she saying is that, you know, that someone senior like Ghulam [Nabi Azad, senior Congress leader] ”because he is the one who is authorised to speak. ¦.

BARKHA: Yeah, yeah, yeah.

RADIA: Right? Was to speak to her then she can tell her father that I have got this message from the Congress.

BARKHA: Theek hai, not a problem. That's not a problem, I'll talk to Azad ”I'll talk to Azad right after I get out of RCR [Race Course Road, presumably, the PM's residence].

RADIA: Yeah, and then she said when father lands, I can speak to him.

BARKHA: Okay.

+++

The two conversationalists touch base again

DATE 22 May 2009 TIME 15:31:29

RADIA: They will speak to her?

BARKHA: Yeah.

RADIA: Who? Ghulam?

BARKHA: Ghulam. Yeah.

RADIA: You know, the problem is she's catching a flight at five haan, going back. Dayanidhi Maran is attending the swearing in when only Raja has been authorised to attend, so he's gone and told his leader that Ahmed Patel has told me especially to attend the swearing in.

BARKHA: Ahmed says this is rubbish ¦

RADIA: But I am telling you but this. Karunanidhi's very confused.

BARKHA: No, but why can't Kani stay also and attend it?

RADIA: She doesn't want to attend no because her father told her to come back. She has to follow what she's father says, no. Call Ghulam then.

BARKHA: Let me call him.

RADIA: She's leaving at five. She's catching a flight at five.

+++

Niira Radia and Barkha Dutt discuss cabinet composition possibilities ”with Raja's inclusion or non-inclusion the big question

DATE 22 May 2009 TIME time 18:09:06

BARKHA: No, you see Congress's condition is Baalu should not get surface transport. Not Baalu, DMK should not get surface transport, beyond individuals right?

RADIA: Correct, correct, and they are not individuals. Let me tell you one thing's for sure, 3 plus 4 was yesterday; because of Maran, they wanted to make it 4 plus 3.

BARKHA: Okay!

RADIA: So, now it is back to 3 plus 4 that was already worked on the table?

BARKHA: No, so why does this formula not sound right then?

RADIA: Because of Alagiri naa, if you make Alagiri ¦ not cabinet. No, he's not got cabinet.

BARKHA: Oh, Alagiri got what, according to these things?

RADIA: You see, according to her, he's got Health, but he can't be cabinet. Either Maran is not cabinet, either Raja is not cabinet or Baalu's not.

BARKHA: Alagiri's got Health and that's a big compromise by Congress because they said we won't give them Health. So that's their face saver. No, but Alagiri, Health can be cabinet?

RADIA: Agreed, but then Raja is MoS.

BARKHA: Raja is MoS!

RADIA: Then is Baalu MoS?

BARKHA: Nahin ho sakta. Nahin, nahin, nahin, if Baalu gets the Heavy Industries and Alagiri is in the Fertiliser, according to ¦. Baalu gets Fertilizer; Alagiri gets this thing, Health.

RADIA: Maran gets Telecom and IT.

BARKHA: Maran gets Telecom and IT. Raja gets demoted.

RADIA: Who gets ¦?

BARKHA: Raja. Nahin hoga?

RADIA: I am telling you nahin hai (laughing). Trust me, nahin hai.

BARKHA: Achcha, theek hai.

+++

In yet another telecon, Barkha Dutt explains her situation to Niira Radia

DATE 22 May 2009 TIME 19:23:57

BARKHA: You see, what happened was everybody I know in the Congress was at the swearing in, so I haven't been able to speak with the top guys, and now I just finished and I am going to make my set of calls.

RADIA: Kani just landed in Chennai. Just now. I just spoke ¦

BARKHA: Where is Daya? Where is Maran?

RADIA: Daya didn't turn up for the swearing in because he was called back, because he went and told Karunanidhi that I have been asked by Ahmed Patel to come for the swearing in. But the leader said then you join the Congress.

BARKHA: (laughs) So now?

RADIA: So Raja was the only one who's authorised to attend which he's done and Raja's catching the 8:40 flight ¦

BARKHA: Okay