Myanmar and India share close cultural and historical ties. The zeal of colonial expansion provoked British administration to wage wars one after the other since 1826 and after the third Anglo-Burmese war in 1886, Burma was annexed completely and made one of the Indian territories. Both Burma and India obtained their independence almost at the same time but unexpectedly bilateral relations between these two neighbours have not been satisfying. The rationale behind this is the presence of military dictatorship in Myanmar since 1962 and India being an ardent follower of democracy. There have been many allegations against the Junta for the violation of Human Rights and it seems there is hardly any light at the end of this dark tunnel.
But for past few years there has been a change in the attitude of Indian policy makers. Finally they have started viewing the Indo-Myanmar relations through the prism of Realpolitik and not through their artificial dogma (hyper democratic). Right now India considers Myanmar as the most important factor to reap the benefits of its decade old “Look East policy”. There are many potent factors behind this eye opener like the geostrategic location of Myanmar in Asia and the bountiful mineral and natural gas resources. But the foremost reason behind this 'policy shift' is the strong strategic foothold gained by China in Myanmar.
When the whole world was against Myanmar’s Junta, they found a close ally in China .The Communist government in China is least bother about the type of government ruling in Myanmar and instead it is in the best interests of CPC (Communist Party of China) that Myanmar should stay miles away from democracy. China has a lot to gain from Myanmar even if it needs to spend billions (both aid and investment).
China is seeking access to Bay of Bengal (Indian Ocean) to shorten the trade route of its oil imports from Central Asia and Eurasia and Myanmar can play a vital role to achieve this as it has coastline in Bay of Bengal. Chinese access to Indian Ocean can raise alarm bells in the South Block because it would provide China the shortest route to reach the Indian mainland. We can imagine the growing Chinese bonhomie towards Myanmar by the fact that the latter has recently allowed China to set up a naval base in the Coco Islands which are situated in the north of Andaman and Nicobar.
But recently there have been two incidents which would probably decide the future of Indo- Burmese relationship. First, the historic visit of General Than Shwe to India few days back and secondly the release of Myanmar’s pro-democracy messiah Aung San Suu Kyi (ASSK). Though with respect to India these events were almost contrasting but the significance lying behind them is extremely important to frame the Indian foreign policy towards Myanmar.
Looking at the policy followed by India towards its eastern neighbor for past few years, the General’s visit was extremely important in order to stop China from eating the whole pie. India has been involved in many infrastructural projects in Myanmar and Indian private sector is also slowly spreading its branches there. Successful completion of Kaladan Multimodal project is indispensable to counter the chicken neck path in North Bengal to reach the north eastern states when a lucrative alternative path is available through Myanmar.
Moreover, the terrorist organizations who are spreading the anti India feelings in the north eastern states have found safe sanctuaries in the Myanmarese soil. India urgently needs the support of the Junta to wipe out their terror camps.
Now there is a twist in this tale. Few days back finally after a long wait ASSK was released from house arrest by the Junta. India, in the pre 1995 days (before the adoption of “Look East Policy”), had whole heartedly supported Myanmar‘s pro-democratic movement led by ASSK. Even the noble laureate was awarded with Nehru Prize for International Understanding in 1995. But since then the situation has changed drastically at least from the Indian perspective. Though the whole country celebrated the release of one of the most outstanding leader of modern world, Indian Parliament remained silent over this issue.
Well we can say that the coming days will be a real testing time for our policy makers. If we remember, Obama in his Parliament speech just after declaring American support for Indian permanent membership in UNSC had mentioned Myanmar. No doubt US has always backed the pro-democratic movement in Myanmar and favoured hard steps against the Junta in UNSC.
However, the Indian policy makers know the fact very well that Myanmar is the way to South East Asia and looking at the recent trend, they surely would not like to strain this nascent relation. India would like to search a political solution to this dilemma but looking at the recently concluded rigged elections in Myanmar,possibility of a political solution looks very fragile. ASSK’s party NLD (National League for Democracy) didn’t take part in this fake election.
India being a temporary member of UNSC for the coming two years need to play
a vital role here and definitely should not act as a puppet of US while taking sides. Rationality and realism should predominate in this process and not the artificial dogma. Well personally I believe probably the best solution which India should seek is the collaboration of ruling Junta and ASSK in Myanmar. Remember ASSK in the speech after her release did not say anything against the Junta and requested people to concentrate on nation building. India also wants the same thing, a peaceful and pro-India government in Myanmar. Only time will tell in which direction the wheel would move.
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Deepak Pal works his way in the booming software industry in Kolkata. At the same time, he desires to contribute toward his nation.
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